Abstract:

Tourism-led growth is frequently promoted as a pathway to regional prosperity, yet its environmental consequences remain deeply contested. Existing research largely treats the relationships between tourism, economic development, and environmental quality as linear or unidirectional, offering limited insight into the governance conditions under which tourism growth becomes sustainable. This study reconceptualises sustainable tourism as a dynamic, spatially interdependent process shaped by reciprocal economic and environmental forces.

Drawing on panel data from 31 Chinese provinces (2004–2017), we develop a spatial simultaneous modelling framework to examine the bidirectional interactions among tourist arrivals, economic growth, and environmental pollution. The findings reveal three central dynamics. First, economic growth and environmental degradation exhibit a bidirectional Environmental Kuznets Curve pattern, suggesting that sustainability outcomes depend on developmental stage and regulatory capacity. Second, tourism expansion and environmental quality mutually condition each other: while tourism contributes to local environmental pressure, pollution in turn constrains tourism demand. Third, and most critically, significant spatial spillover effects emerge. Economic and environmental conditions in neighbouring provinces substantially shape local sustainability trajectories, highlighting the importance of cross-regional governance coordination.

These results challenge the assumption that tourism-led growth automatically translates into sustainable development. Instead, sustainability appears contingent upon inter-regional policy alignment, institutional capacity, and coordinated environmental management. By integrating spatial interdependence into sustainable tourism theory, this study advances a governance-based perspective on tourism-led development and offers implications for regional policymakers seeking to balance competitiveness with ecological resilience.

Keywords: Sustainable tourism; Tourism-led growth; Spatial governance; Environmental Kuznets Curve; Regional spillover

Please choose your submission type: Full Paper

Primary Track: Operations, Logistics and Supply Chain Management

Keywords: Supply Chain: sustainability

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Ms. Omolayole Banjoko