Abstract:

Abstract

Organisations operate in tightly coupled, nonlinear systems where major disruptions emerge from accumulating systemic stress rather than exceptional shocks. Established rare-event frameworks – Black Swan, Grey Swan, and Dragon King – provide categorisation and explanations of surprise, foreseeability, and regime-specific signals, but depend on event definability as the principal justification for action. These frameworks struggle to address scenarios where disruption is anticipated and unavoidable, yet its specific form, timing, and consequences remain opaque.

This paper introduces Shadow Swan Theory as an early-stage conceptual model focused on the concept of inevitable but opaque disruption, paired with a practical mindset of readiness without prediction dependence. Shadow Swan Theory adapts rare-event frameworks by shifting the justification for pre-event action from prediction and scenario specification to inevitability judgments under structural opacity. The framework highlights implications for risk governance, leadership, and future empirical research.

Please choose your submission type: Developmental Paper

Primary Track: Innovation

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Mr. James Raven

Biography