Abstract
Using 31 in-depth interviews with New Space actors across Europe, the United States, Japan, and India we analyze how actors coordinate action in a sector characterized by extreme capital intensity, long technological horizons, and radical uncertainty about demand. Our analysis shows, first, that actors engage in ontological scaffolding by translating speculative technological possibilities into operationally actionable futures through narratives, public procurement, and regulatory categories. Second, we find that competitors enact collective future holding by pooling fragility and suspending premature closure — coordinating standards, cultivating redundancy, and protecting the credibility of the ecosystem. Third, we demonstrate that States discipline the future by anchoring long-horizon technological projects to sovereign time through milestone-based contracts and geopolitical commitments, encouraging actors to reorganize around underwritten futures.