Abstract
Purpose: This study examines how organisational leaders make strategic decisions under conditions of data ambiguity, where performance metrics are incomplete, unverified, or unstable.
Design/methodology/approach: A mixed‑methods design was employed, combining survey data from 120 leaders and team members in the UK financial services sector with 10 semi‑structured interviews. Quantitative data were analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics, while qualitative data were examined thematically.
Findings: Leaders were found to evaluate risk iteratively when organisational data could not be confirmed, drawing on experiential judgement and staged decision processes. Sensemaking strategies supported collective understanding and coordination.
Originality/value: This study advances leadership research by addressing the underexplored challenge of leading under data‑driven ambiguity. Integrating insights from sensemaking theory, dynamic capabilities, and the resource‑based view, it offers an empirically grounded account of how leaders operate when data cannot be fully trusted.
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